Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
